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MADISON, Wis. — A feeling of uneasiness permeated Camp Randall Stadium 45 seconds into the fourth quarter of Wisconsin’s season opener last August, when the Badgers — 24-point favorites — unexpectedly found themselves trailing Western Michigan 14-13.
Wisconsin pulled away that night for a 28-14 victory to avoid catastrophe. But the performance against a Mid-American Conference opponent did little to quell uncertainty about the product Wisconsin would put on the field for the rest of the season. And, in the end, it said a lot about where the Badgers were headed during a 5-7 campaign that ended without a bowl game.
A revamped Wisconsin team with more than 40 new players and an entirely new offense under coordinator Jeff Grimes will be on display during a Thursday night season opener against another MAC team in Miami (Ohio) at Camp Randall Stadium. The hope is that all the work the Badgers have put in over the past eight months will yield a more complete result. As Badgers quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. put it: “You only get one opportunity for a first impression.”
While winning is the ultimate goal, how the Badgers win will go a long way toward providing people with optimism that this season has the potential to be different.
“We want to go out there and really dominate and show them that what we’ve done in the offseason, what we’ve done in camp is worth it and it’s going to pay off,” Wisconsin left guard Joe Brunner said.
Here are three keys to the game and a prediction.
Contain QB Dequan Finn
Two offseasons ago, Finn was one of two transfer portal quarterbacks Wisconsin brought to campus as the Badgers looked for their next starter. Wisconsin went with Tyler Van Dyke, while Finn ended up at Baylor. Finn suffered an early-season shoulder injury that prevented him from reaching his ceiling, was granted a seventh year of eligibility and transferred this offseason to Miami (Ohio).
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell said Monday that he believed Finn fit the system at Miami in a similar way to when Finn began his career at Toledo. Finn was a three-year starter at Toledo, where he threw for 7,074 yards and ran for 1,840 yards — the most in program history. Finn’s versatility will challenge a Wisconsin defense that struggled to generate pressure last season and ranked last nationally in tackles for loss.
“When you look at him on film, he throws the deep ball really well, and I think he’s more of an improvisor than he is a true scrambler and a true designed QB run type of guy,” Badgers cornerback Ricardo Hallman said. “But he can definitely extend plays, and he’s shown on film a lot of times to create big plays from scrambling outside of the pocket. So he just makes the defense stay a lot more disciplined.”
Establish an offensive rhythm
Wisconsin’s offense this season is much more complex because of the variety of motions and shifts involved. That complexity certainly can create headaches for defenses, but it also means the offense must be locked in to avoid pre-snap penalties and other potential drive killers.
There is loads of potential with this system under Grimes. Three returning offensive line starters can help set the tone for the physicality Wisconsin wants to have this season. A three-running back rotation with Dilin Jones, Darrion Dupree and Cade Yacamelli provides something different and can keep each other fresh.
The combination of the scheme, the offensive line and the running back room should allow Wisconsin to more consistently move the chains and avoid as many third-and-longs. Last season, Wisconsin’s third down conversion rate of 36 percent ranked 108th nationally. If Wisconsin can pick up yardage on early downs, it also figures to take some of the pressure off Edwards Jr.
“The distortion is unbelievable,” Badgers center Jake Renfro said. “I’ll be watching film and sometimes I don’t even know where the ball is at. It could be C gap or outside the tackles. It could be anywhere. And it’s really cool to see just the amount of motions and shifts.
“The ball can hit anywhere at any time and we could look the same up front. Obviously, I hear the play calls and I know where it’s going to be at eventually. But it’s really cool the distortion that we can bring and give people. It’s going to be tough to defend.”
Survive the unknowns
Fickell said the greatest challenge with season-opening games was how little a staff knew about its opponent, particularly in the transfer portal age with so much year-over-year roster turnover. Brunner said the offense has watched how Miami’s past defenses attacked particular schemes, such as power, wide zone and tight zone because there are just four RedHawks starters returning on defense. Miami doesn’t return a single starter on offense.
That means Wisconsin’s players have tried to focus as much on themselves and their systems to succeed. Fickell expressed confidence in how well he expects Wisconsin to handle the task and noted the objective was to perform as though the Badgers were in “midseason form.” But he acknowledged there was still more to learn about his own team with so many newcomers as well.
“For us, it’s about going out there, it’s about us playing with some confidence and playing clean,” Fickell said. “Because we’ve got a lot to prove to ourselves and a lot to establish as we continue to move forward. But it can’t get here fast enough.”
Prediction
How much progress has Wisconsin made as a program after all the offseason changes on offense and defense? That’s the question the opener will help begin to answer. What the Badgers are attempting to do on both sides of the ball certainly feels like it makes more sense for the types of players on the roster. But, as Fickell said, “now they’ve got to go out and do it.”
Miami is 20-8 overall and 14-2 in the MAC the past two seasons and has been picked to finish second in the league. But the RedHawks also are a team that returns just four total starters on offense and defense. Wisconsin is a 17.5-point favorite. Given the schedule, there will be very few games in which the Badgers are considered a heavy favorite. This is an important game for a variety of reasons, including demonstrating that Wisconsin can return to some of its old-school physical roots by handing out an old-school Badgers knockout.
Wisconsin 38, Miami (Ohio) 10
